Market · 22 of 22 outcomes
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 21:24 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 22 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 89 | 99.7¢ | $89 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,341 bets |
| 0xd717…3b85 | No | 38 | 99.7¢ | $38 | — |
| 50cents0x7c9e…db3d | Yes | 6,032 | 0.4¢ | $9 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 5 | 99.8¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,987 bets |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | Yes | 3,000 | 4.5¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 2,412 bets |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 1,500 | 0.2¢ | $2 | Positive+$42.72 per $100 · 2,781 bets |
| mehanizator0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | 1,352 | 0.2¢ | $2 | Positive+$3.84 per $100 · 8,686 bets |
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | Yes | 1,224 | 3.3¢ | $2 | Proven+$5.21 per $100 · 2,232 bets |
| 0x1ff3…eb39 | Yes | 1,170 | 0.3¢ | $2 | Positive+$3.53 per $100 · 336 bets |
| 79fsdfs0x2564…f258 | Yes | 1,149 | 0.4¢ | $2 | Losing−$3.85 per $100 · 2,461 bets |
| 0xdcfe…b7d3 | Yes | 1,059 | 1.2¢ | $2 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 849 | 0.7¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 0x05b2…c70d | No | 1 | 100.3¢ | $1 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 749 | 0.5¢ | $1 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 630 | 4.5¢ | $1 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,944 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 464 | 8.3¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.51 per $100 · 124,298 bets |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | 437 | 4.5¢ | $1 | Positive+$3.67 per $100 · 14,801 bets |
| 86fgh0x2213…e5de | Yes | 321 | 0.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.40 per $100 · 296 bets |
| 0x9c84…be53 | Yes | 300 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 297 | 3.6¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| siffy0xb7c7…b3bb | Yes | 253 | 0.4¢ | $0 | — |
| MrGrunbaum0xaf1f…9dc5 | Yes | 250 | 0.4¢ | $0 | — |
| Gorea0x22e0…3adb | Yes | 219 | 0.9¢ | $0 | Losing−$21.33 per $100 · 690 bets |
| IntoDarkness7790x3d3c…630b | Yes | 212 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 210 | 4.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,756 bets |
| Banditoes0xe7fe…24e5 | Yes | 200 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | No | 0 | 98.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Crypto-Well0x4e39…8cbf | Yes | 177 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$39.17 per $100 · 1,741 bets |
| 2200FCA4fE3bAb3706522A8F4436B7656911474f.0x2200…474f | Yes | 146 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 134 | 4.4¢ | $0 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,067 bets |
| Lucerys0x1387…55f8 | Yes | 119 | 4.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.70 per $100 · 57,497+ bets · updating |
| TENETENET0x3329…43a6 | Yes | 100 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$874.76 per $100 · 26,465 bets |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 95 | 0.4¢ | $0 | — |
| Oklmntrader0x6f67…102c | Yes | 90 | 8.0¢ | $0 | — |
| fang19570xf82f…5ac5 | Yes | 80 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 64 | 3.9¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| SpringlyFawl0xfbed…a665 | Yes | 60 | 4.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$11.02 per $100 · 11,252 bets |
| skyrocks0xa3cf…1a67 | No | 0 | 99.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x7d4d…96f3 | Yes | 53 | 1.0¢ | $0 | — |
| burge1460x3187…1df4 | Yes | 50 | 3.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.50 per $100 · 508 bets |
| JordanMooney0x5136…0e4f | Yes | 38 | 4.5¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 13,173 bets |
| botshishui0x0535…91df | Yes | 30 | 4.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xb032…c16c | Yes | 30 | 2.4¢ | $0 | — |
| jensond0xa9b7…f43c | Yes | 30 | 0.4¢ | $0 | — |
| V4grant0xf5bb…bdb8 | Yes | 27 | 3.8¢ | $0 | — |
| KickstandBot0xca1f…d282 | Yes | 20 | 2.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | Yes | 18 | 4.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| triklozoid0xeab7…b389 | Yes | 15 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$2630.36 per $100 · 34,840 bets |
| acc320x3a30…99ec | Yes | 15 | 0.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.36 per $100 · 2,439 bets |
| babyalgo0x0a3a…e990 | Yes | 10 | 2.4¢ | $0 | — |
| godblessme20260x7dcf…a7bd | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | — |
| nonono0010xb546…ca22 | Yes | 6 | 4.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x004a…f9e5 | Yes | 6 | 6.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9daa…9904 | Yes | 5 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x2b23…b6b2 | Yes | 5 | 4.7¢ | $0 | — |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 5 | 4.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.59 per $100 · 87,526 bets |
| 0x6fbc…fa10 | Yes | 2 | 0.7¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.87 per $100 · 1,441 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.