Market · 10 of 15 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 09:21 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
12 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| yarokomarov0x6fc7…43a1 | No | 5,024 | 59.8¢ | $3.49K | New1 settled bet |
| WzapS0x32b4…7f09 | No | 5,014 | 67.4¢ | $3.48K | New12 settled bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | No | 1,992 | 67.1¢ | $1.38K | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 636 bets |
| KrackenSruster0xd44e…67e2 | No | 1,967 | 61.8¢ | $1.37K | Proven+$10.52 per $100 · 893 bets |
| georgeSt0x2cb5…553b | No | 1,731 | 63.0¢ | $1.2K | New4 settled bets |
| 0x06d3…b956 | No | 1,469 | 54.0¢ | $1.02K | New90 settled bets |
| Hakei.0x97ea…3363 | Yes | 3,054 | 36.5¢ | $932 | Proven+$4.64 per $100 · 2,040 bets |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | Yes | 2,989 | 32.3¢ | $912 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 2,112 | 31.5¢ | $644 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,286 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 2,094 | 39.2¢ | $639 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,320 bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 2,010 | 34.5¢ | $613 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| greathug0x5d4c…3d9f | No | 824 | 51.7¢ | $572 | Break-even−$0.34 per $100 · 111 bets |
| adenakoz10xb615…73cf | No | 700 | 68.0¢ | $486 | Proven+$21.35 per $100 · 1,988 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 1,250 | 54.1¢ | $381 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | No | 548 | 66.7¢ | $381 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| yuansir0x7a09…8cdb | Yes | 1,195 | 42.0¢ | $365 | Break-even+$0.33 per $100 · 182 bets |
| doctorzhao0x5292…0a64 | No | 496 | 60.5¢ | $345 | New3 settled bets |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 1,015 | 38.6¢ | $310 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| radioigor0x15b2…6f4a | No | 412 | 58.1¢ | $286 | New24 settled bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 936 | 40.4¢ | $285 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | Yes | 900 | 33.7¢ | $275 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| BigBoiBettin0x48ee…008c | Yes | 800 | 45.9¢ | $244 | Positive+$19.61 per $100 · 263 bets |
| 0x4e84…ef69 | Yes | 724 | 45.6¢ | $221 | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 817 bets |
| TheMasterMind0x555c…ee28 | Yes | 650 | 35.0¢ | $198 | Positive+$1.01 per $100 · 2,797 bets |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 619 | 36.9¢ | $189 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,062 bets |
| Marty-Byrde0xe0a2…a349 | No | 218 | 64.2¢ | $151 | — |
| unsecured73080xe0d9…8483 | No | 218 | 68.0¢ | $151 | — |
| irusweb0xa157…04b2 | No | 214 | 57.0¢ | $149 | — |
| darkus0x88fe…f516 | No | 201 | 62.2¢ | $140 | — |
| 202606010xb36c…1077 | No | 200 | 65.0¢ | $139 | Proven+$4.69 per $100 · 216 bets |
| 0x36da…907b | No | 177 | 66.0¢ | $123 | Break-even−$0.98 per $100 · 399 bets |
| badatthis0x75ac…33d7 | Yes | 400 | 32.0¢ | $122 | Proven+$6.72 per $100 · 6,681 bets |
| aelrinn0x5710…5a7a | No | 175 | 69.0¢ | $122 | New85 settled bets |
| Heinrich18710x46f4…5352 | No | 157 | 63.5¢ | $109 | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 422 bets |
| p0l780x66c6…24af | No | 157 | 63.7¢ | $109 | New6 settled bets |
| 0x0c2c…dce3 | No | 156 | 64.0¢ | $109 | Proven+$5.53 per $100 · 740 bets |
| Gluckyklucky0x97d3…3f3c | Yes | 300 | 31.0¢ | $92 | — |
| rocky420050xd6a8…58fd | Yes | 300 | 37.0¢ | $91 | Break-even−$0.22 per $100 · 12,889 bets |
| 0xd0f8…6b50 | Yes | 290 | 35.0¢ | $88 | Proven+$11.40 per $100 · 266 bets |
| serferer0xdc70…cc56 | No | 126 | 62.8¢ | $88 | — |
| runechiters0x2213…492c | No | 100 | 60.0¢ | $70 | Positive+$2.46 per $100 · 627 bets |
| Qwertie0x3759…3911 | No | 100 | 61.0¢ | $70 | New61 settled bets |
| BrightLightFromAbove0xbcf6…a71f | No | 100 | 56.0¢ | $70 | — |
| Yles0xdd4d…a125 | No | 100 | 67.0¢ | $70 | — |
| 0xfd02…fb6a | No | 90 | 61.8¢ | $63 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | No | 88 | 54.0¢ | $61 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| sergeo14890xfc03…d554 | No | 88 | 57.0¢ | $61 | — |
| AlexZA30x5c5b…1a6d | No | 87 | 62.0¢ | $61 | Positive+$4.62 per $100 · 181 bets |
| 0xf9ea…7b04 | No | 87 | 62.7¢ | $60 | — |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 191 | 48.5¢ | $58 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,062 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 186 | 42.6¢ | $57 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,423 bets |
| nero25890x1464…5e75 | No | 80 | 62.0¢ | $56 | Losing−$3.02 per $100 · 2,380 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 76 | 51.0¢ | $53 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,079 bets |
| 0x19bb…f0f5 | Yes | 168 | 46.5¢ | $51 | New41 settled bets |
| AnaFav0x41cb…a5df | Yes | 150 | 34.7¢ | $46 | Proven+$7.18 per $100 · 3,483 bets |
| gesst0xadaf…f9f2 | Yes | 150 | 39.0¢ | $46 | Proven+$17.17 per $100 · 568 bets |
| JoshBarmixer0xe343…5b7e | No | 63 | 62.4¢ | $43 | — |
| jborges0x4868…587f | Yes | 126 | 39.7¢ | $38 | New10 settled bets |
| Sikkifweflles0x995c…8770 | No | 50 | 60.0¢ | $35 | — |
| filthymudeok0xbbe3…5b92 | No | 48 | 67.0¢ | $34 | Losing−$11.70 per $100 · 325 bets |
| thesandman0xf87b…180a | Yes | 102 | 39.0¢ | $31 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 100 | 33.9¢ | $31 | Losing−$2.53 per $100 · 124,761+ bets · updating |
| jcslj12345660xfa55…ce44 | No | 39 | 64.0¢ | $27 | — |
| Goorsakbardari0x5670…2b9c | Yes | 79 | 37.9¢ | $24 | Losing−$3.17 per $100 · 155 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 78 | 35.1¢ | $24 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | No | 32 | 62.8¢ | $22 | Break-even+$0.40 per $100 · 632 bets |
| VolodymyrMudryk0x18fa…9cf4 | No | 31 | 64.0¢ | $22 | New89 settled bets |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | No | 30 | 64.0¢ | $21 | Losing−$2.98 per $100 · 4,402 bets |
| 0x35b6…cb7e | No | 30 | 64.0¢ | $21 | New13 settled bets |
| 0xafa7…6e67 | No | 27 | 62.7¢ | $19 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 27 | 62.7¢ | $19 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,994 bets |
| 0xd11c…0d06 | No | 25 | 62.2¢ | $18 | — |
| 0xf2c4…92d3 | Yes | 54 | 37.3¢ | $16 | — |
| Schatzmat840x623a…5e86 | Yes | 51 | 39.2¢ | $16 | Proven+$2.01 per $100 · 282 bets |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 49 | 33.0¢ | $15 | Break-even+$0.33 per $100 · 3,303 bets |
| Surendipity-Guesser0x3d4d…5ac8 | No | 21 | 59.0¢ | $15 | Losing−$13.35 per $100 · 155 bets |
| Rr550xb8ad…ff58 | Yes | 47 | 58.0¢ | $14 | — |
| 0xb6ce…895d | Yes | 46 | 33.2¢ | $14 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| Milin-dc0x2762…2cf6 | No | 20 | 66.0¢ | $14 | Break-even+$0.56 per $100 · 1,658 bets |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | No | 20 | 52.0¢ | $14 | — |
| lottonakamoto0x2884…d0c3 | Yes | 44 | 47.0¢ | $13 | Break-even+$0.80 per $100 · 991 bets |
| whaleP10x5b1d…8895 | No | 19 | 62.8¢ | $13 | Losing−$5.71 per $100 · 587 bets |
| chombo0x94ed…6d10 | No | 18 | 57.0¢ | $12 | — |
| esski0x8ad4…9d30 | Yes | 39 | 38.0¢ | $12 | — |
| 0xf956…896c | Yes | 34 | 64.0¢ | $10 | — |
| bobrenokli0x8a08…0eec | Yes | 30 | 50.0¢ | $9 | — |
| Zasmes0x66be…1148 | Yes | 28 | 33.5¢ | $9 | Positive+$1.17 per $100 · 260 bets |
| 0x69e0…7c8e | Yes | 24 | 46.2¢ | $7 | New7 settled bets |
| 0x5449…992b | Yes | 23 | 33.0¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,720 bets |
| DavidDiamond0x85a1…f549 | Yes | 20 | 40.0¢ | $6 | — |
| bakayo33 - 99340x343d…cd2e | Yes | 20 | 43.5¢ | $6 | Positive+$2.10 per $100 · 988 bets |
| 0x2650…44f7 | Yes | 18 | 33.3¢ | $6 | Losing−$5.64 per $100 · 1,761 bets |
| 0x5995…da14 | Yes | 17 | 48.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.92 per $100 · 1,187 bets |
| 0x7b64…8440 | Yes | 17 | 33.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$3.09 per $100 · 962 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 16 | 33.4¢ | $5 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,471 bets |
| danilK0x06f6…eded | Yes | 15 | 69.6¢ | $5 | New38 settled bets |
| winexecutescale0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | 15 | 37.0¢ | $5 | — |
| JluBcu0xbf77…1925 | Yes | 13 | 38.0¢ | $4 | — |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | Yes | 13 | 52.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 351 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.