Market · 2 of 4 outcomes
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 16:01 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 10 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex4160x9a3f…914a | Yes | 1,300 | 69.6¢ | $526 | Break-even+$0.19 per $100 · 6,924 bets |
| MrMelonHead0x9f66…3a50 | No | 863 | 58.6¢ | $513 | — |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | No | 857 | 46.9¢ | $510 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,103 bets |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | Yes | 1,069 | 44.0¢ | $433 | Proven+$6.08 per $100 · 628 bets |
| chaosj880xca12…ea03 | No | 697 | 58.0¢ | $415 | Proven+$2.86 per $100 · 3,013 bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | No | 690 | 54.0¢ | $411 | Proven+$8.36 per $100 · 1,242 bets |
| Konfucious0xac76…9359 | No | 491 | 55.5¢ | $292 | — |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 635 | 46.6¢ | $257 | Positive+$7.48 per $100 · 10,703 bets |
| Toncar160x4158…ce9f | Yes | 621 | 44.9¢ | $251 | Positive+$17.60 per $100 · 2,043 bets |
| GayPride0x551e…b0e0 | No | 400 | 43.0¢ | $238 | Proven+$6.82 per $100 · 968 bets |
| CHIKI330xff52…4546 | Yes | 500 | 50.0¢ | $203 | — |
| xcvsgdd0x9fa8…593a | Yes | 440 | 66.3¢ | $178 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 288 | 28.6¢ | $171 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 195,229 bets |
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | Yes | 409 | 52.3¢ | $166 | Positive+$2.09 per $100 · 3,320 bets |
| elkoslao0xd77e…43b3 | No | 269 | 75.1¢ | $160 | — |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | No | 250 | 59.0¢ | $149 | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,750 bets |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 325 | 53.2¢ | $132 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,063 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 203 | 46.5¢ | $121 | Losing−$8.67 per $100 · 13,185 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | No | 200 | 76.0¢ | $119 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| 0x6992…6c1d | Yes | 275 | 50.4¢ | $111 | Positive+$1.04 per $100 · 694 bets |
| Forch0x6ca0…e59d | Yes | 222 | 65.5¢ | $90 | — |
| Maru.lucky.nala.lenu0x392a…262d | No | 150 | 60.7¢ | $89 | Losing−$1.59 per $100 · 307 bets |
| Dapsy0x73d2…f9b7 | No | 150 | 75.0¢ | $89 | — |
| Fishcup0xd031…f613 | No | 135 | 37.0¢ | $80 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 177 | 66.0¢ | $72 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,087 bets |
| ithinkthisisloser0x31f2…f75f | No | 100 | 50.0¢ | $60 | — |
| Rainless0x9d5e…3921 | No | 80 | 47.1¢ | $48 | — |
| SRG8880x594c…750f | Yes | 111 | 65.0¢ | $45 | — |
| 0x4e84…ef69 | No | 68 | 59.0¢ | $40 | Break-even+$0.29 per $100 · 821 bets |
| LeChatonFat0x9629…ee15 | Yes | 91 | 43.8¢ | $37 | — |
| Dolev13030xe6bf…5cad | No | 62 | 37.0¢ | $37 | — |
| AboutTime0x789a…1dda | No | 60 | 50.2¢ | $36 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 88 | 47.0¢ | $36 | Losing−$2.54 per $100 · 124,982+ bets · updating |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | Yes | 75 | 66.0¢ | $30 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | No | 50 | 50.0¢ | $30 | Break-even+$0.32 per $100 · 3,316 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 48 | 57.5¢ | $29 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 579 bets |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | No | 48 | 57.5¢ | $29 | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 745 bets |
| Pantheon10x606e…6b3a | No | 46 | 40.1¢ | $28 | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 477 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 42 | 59.0¢ | $25 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,126 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 40 | 35.0¢ | $24 | Proven+$2.01 per $100 · 20,221 bets |
| Relaccsed0xa6b7…d5f3 | No | 40 | 48.6¢ | $24 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 38 | 77.0¢ | $22 | Losing−$7.40 per $100 · 88,855+ bets · updating |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 53 | 43.0¢ | $21 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,471 bets |
| bakayo33 - 99340x343d…cd2e | No | 30 | 49.0¢ | $18 | Positive+$2.10 per $100 · 988 bets |
| 0x377f…e8f9 | No | 28 | 36.0¢ | $17 | Proven+$7.36 per $100 · 217 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 31 | 45.8¢ | $13 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 59.0¢ | $12 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,733 bets |
| 0xbeef…620e | Yes | 30 | 45.4¢ | $12 | — |
| mmtrading0x5a0c…9db8 | No | 20 | 50.0¢ | $12 | Break-even−$0.32 per $100 · 14,884 bets |
| ninjagamerpinny0x308f…8607 | No | 19 | 35.8¢ | $11 | — |
| Wiggly0x3a67…6095 | Yes | 21 | 42.8¢ | $9 | Losing−$1.08 per $100 · 900 bets |
| winnertakeitall0xa960…aef8 | No | 14 | 50.0¢ | $8 | — |
| louj750180x480f…7c91 | No | 13 | 38.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 457 bets |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | No | 13 | 32.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$3.12 per $100 · 1,469 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 18 | 44.0¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 23,004 bets |
| blisik0x93ed…7e69 | No | 11 | 35.0¢ | $7 | — |
| omsode0x82bd…335e | Yes | 16 | 40.8¢ | $7 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 146 bets |
| NellyDora0xca97…5409 | No | 11 | 60.0¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 1,328 bets |
| 0x0174…95b0 | Yes | 15 | 66.0¢ | $6 | — |
| PoraUhq0x1cc0…971c | Yes | 15 | 66.0¢ | $6 | — |
| adsfasdf1130x0dba…2db9 | No | 10 | 66.0¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.02 per $100 · 7,693 bets |
| Milin-dc0x2762…2cf6 | No | 10 | 54.0¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.56 per $100 · 1,658 bets |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | No | 10 | 37.0¢ | $6 | Proven+$2.65 per $100 · 3,143 bets |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | No | 10 | 47.0¢ | $6 | — |
| Spielermann0x0c93…aafa | No | 10 | 60.3¢ | $6 | Losing−$6.81 per $100 · 320 bets |
| dfobos0x78f5…bccd | No | 9 | 53.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x5449…992b | No | 8 | 57.7¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.15 per $100 · 6,740 bets |
| ccyy20260x4282…3455 | No | 7 | 57.8¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 1,709 bets |
| aaadda0xa840…87f7 | Yes | 10 | 58.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 4,316 bets |
| 0xblink0xf6d3…7e6c | Yes | 10 | 44.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xf9b5…1212 | Yes | 10 | 51.5¢ | $4 | — |
| asd560xda65…e87e | No | 7 | 27.0¢ | $4 | — |
| ddd333aaa0x1dc1…5f5b | Yes | 9 | 58.0¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.09 per $100 · 4,971 bets |
| 0xb6ce…895d | No | 6 | 61.0¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| sm-020x7a55…9e6b | No | 6 | 35.0¢ | $3 | — |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | Yes | 8 | 37.0¢ | $3 | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 6,492 bets |
| asdfll10x601f…bb82 | No | 5 | 69.3¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 7,441 bets |
| 0x49c4…db5b | No | 5 | 50.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$6.56 per $100 · 10,587 bets |
| 0xb4f6…eada | No | 5 | 48.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xe21c…447a | Yes | 5 | 53.0¢ | $2 | — |
| addav0x5f4f…915c | Yes | 5 | 45.0¢ | $2 | — |
| asdf112d0x839f…ecba | Yes | 5 | 59.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 3,502 bets |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 5 | 44.7¢ | $2 | Losing−$3.04 per $100 · 5,169 bets |
| ogi2500x3373…3716 | Yes | 4 | 52.5¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.11 per $100 · 3,308 bets |
| random-random1230xa1cc…fa62 | Yes | 3 | 39.0¢ | $1 | — |
| TheOne7770x2b62…438c | Yes | 2 | 38.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$19.40 per $100 · 1,430 bets |
| P0020x64f8…db66 | Yes | 2 | 66.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.83 per $100 · 777 bets |
| 0x9495…468f | Yes | 1 | 40.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$4.14 per $100 · 12,955 bets |
| winexecutescale0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | 1 | 45.4¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 0 | 41.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.