Market
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 06:15 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Kraken, 0 on Capitals. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd9e0…05f2 | Kraken | 69 | 54.8¢ | $69 | Positive+$1.84 per $100 · 52,305 bets |
| dabossrealman0xc0e4…dd38 | Kraken | 1 | 89.5¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 6,879 bets |
| ojg0x0f76…dcc9 | Kraken | 1 | 52.3¢ | $1 | — |
| RanaAmariPredicts0x0cdf…ec9e | Capitals | 15,303 | 67.1¢ | $0 | — |
| torta.tech0x161a…4103 | Capitals | 7,050 | 66.1¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.45 per $100 · 22,421 bets |
| geraldo7770xe53b…a526 | Capitals | 4,514 | 67.2¢ | $0 | — |
| TheodoreDoesntPlay0xa292…7025 | Capitals | 3,325 | 65.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf62b…844a | Capitals | 2,727 | 67.1¢ | $0 | — |
| roldy0x3e04…564d | Capitals | 2,546 | 65.4¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.57 per $100 · 4,837 bets |
| 0xf725…1e61 | Capitals | 1,685 | 0.3¢ | $0 | Losing−$5.47 per $100 · 30,152+ bets · updating |
| NordhavenCap0x91fe…c1c6 | Capitals | 1,622 | 38.9¢ | $0 | Proven+$13.52 per $100 · 4,084 bets |
| TefllonDon0xb454…a98c | Capitals | 1,500 | 67.1¢ | $0 | — |
| TTdes0x2586…c893 | Capitals | 1,433 | 66.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$7.50 per $100 · 1,356 bets |
| 0xc74a…25a2 | Capitals | 1,396 | 41.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x6c82…00d5 | Capitals | 1,086 | 46.2¢ | $0 | — |
| hurpdurp0x1d3a…7b63 | Capitals | 888 | 66.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 4215839070x64da…2292 | Capitals | 776 | 39.8¢ | $0 | — |
| freedom820x272d…bc2f | Capitals | 693 | 72.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x2852…963d | Capitals | 626 | 29.0¢ | $0 | — |
| BillBenter20260x84ad…bfb7 | Capitals | 607 | 64.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.80 per $100 · 31,168+ bets · updating |
| UpTheBlues0x2a69…d2f7 | Capitals | 578 | 67.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.93 per $100 · 185,889 bets |
| Gl4d0x1e3a…9e14 | Capitals | 577 | 66.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.49 per $100 · 2,393 bets |
| 0xa1c6…d2d6 | Capitals | 421 | 35.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9086…4d46 | Capitals | 362 | 50.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$4.63 per $100 · 2,913 bets |
| HomeRunHazard0x5268…135d | Capitals | 358 | 65.1¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 69,985 bets |
| rossoftw0x7232…a106 | Capitals | 357 | 27.1¢ | $0 | — |
| fang330x277f…ae31 | Capitals | 311 | 67.1¢ | $0 | — |
| cybercherry0xa270…f5e6 | Capitals | 300 | 1.7¢ | $0 | — |
| locksnation0xb88a…f6ad | Capitals | 300 | 67.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x03d9…e693 | Capitals | 300 | 1.5¢ | $0 | — |
| Miami2220xe301…9bd9 | Capitals | 267 | 64.1¢ | $0 | — |
| FUMAYUSY0xa982…09f1 | Capitals | 265 | 28.6¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.59 per $100 · 250 bets |
| shisushi0x860d…3c72 | Capitals | 231 | 66.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.76 per $100 · 2,333 bets |
| frapyz0xa3a8…ad06 | Capitals | 185 | 40.0¢ | $0 | — |
| vk-cod-es0xb964…4242 | Capitals | 175 | 38.4¢ | $0 | — |
| caspar12480xa278…3369 | Capitals | 173 | 57.2¢ | $0 | — |
| edswpang0xd092…342a | Capitals | 152 | 67.8¢ | $0 | — |
| dittooo0xf4ec…5ab3 | Capitals | 149 | 68.1¢ | $0 | — |
| stkomeghivott0x42a1…a8e9 | Capitals | 138 | 42.3¢ | $0 | Losing−$10.73 per $100 · 19,622 bets |
| 0x55a3…fd93 | Capitals | 132 | 65.1¢ | $0 | — |
| manoamano0x494e…6f79 | Capitals | 131 | 38.2¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.27 per $100 · 689 bets |
| Kuban940x04e1…4176 | Capitals | 130 | 38.6¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.02 per $100 · 237 bets |
| sentinel-x0x0d5f…1171 | Capitals | 123 | 67.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 21,959 bets |
| 0xa2e0…0a40 | Capitals | 120 | 40.4¢ | $0 | — |
| ashkabrista0x23df…640a | Capitals | 108 | 46.2¢ | $0 | — |
| johnbarry0xeef8…f025 | Capitals | 102 | 65.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x1ba7…67a1 | Capitals | 100 | 50.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$5.84 per $100 · 1,794 bets |
| KnureKnume0xcf6a…f9d0 | Capitals | 100 | 50.2¢ | $0 | Proven+$5.98 per $100 · 1,077 bets |
| 2ff70c7e4021964E80b6eDbfCCb4Cc975149BF320x2ff7…bf32 | Capitals | 100 | 60.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 5,142 bets |
| shrinr0xc064…6fa8 | Capitals | 86 | 59.2¢ | $0 | — |
| JohnnyV40x8d11…0c08 | Capitals | 84 | 59.2¢ | $0 | — |
| lomatic0x5c18…2f76 | Capitals | 83 | 60.6¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.08 per $100 · 23,907 bets |
| dips.0xc785…4ef2 | Capitals | 82 | 58.2¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.53 per $100 · 30,440+ bets · updating |
Shares = Kraken minus Capitals for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.