October 15

Decided by

The market resolves Yes if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia on the specified date, AST.§1

Intercepted munitions

Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact do not constitute a qualifying military action.§7

Debris and wreckage

Debris, fragments, or wreckage from intercepted munitions landing on Saudi Arabia is not a military action, regardless of damage.§17

Threats unexecuted

Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed is not a qualifying military action.§15

Counted

A qualifying action is a Houthi-initiated air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Saudi Arabia.§3

Source

Official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, and a consensus of credible reporting.§25

Closes

Oct 16, 2026 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• October 10 99.8¢
• October 5 98.4¢
• October 11 97.8¢
• October 8 96.4¢
• October 12 84.0¢
• October 14 75.0¢
• October 4 64.5¢
• October 19 61.0¢
• October 15 60.0¢
• October 18 56.5¢
• October 23 56.5¢
• October 24 56.5¢

15 more outcomes in this event.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.