Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 11?
Chance of Yes
▲ 47 pts this week
Money on this event
27 outcomes
Room to trade
0.6¢ between buy and sell
Bet this week
Ends
Oct 12
ended
Full rules
As written on Polymarket for “Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 11?”.
§1This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia on the specified date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).
§2Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
§3A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia.
§4An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
§5A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
§6The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
§7Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
§8Surface-to-air missile strikes;
§9Small-arms fire;
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 18:13 UTC. Not financial advice.
§10Ground incursions;
§11Cyber operations;
§12Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
§13Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
§14Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
§15Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
§16Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action.
§17Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
§18“Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters.
§19Saudi Arabia’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed.
§20Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia as of market creation will qualify.
§21The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.
§22Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action.
§23If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.
§24At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.
§25No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
§26The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and a consensus of credible reporting.